NOT SO FAST, DEMOCRATS – AT 9:39 A.M. ET:  The Dem party line in the last four or five days is that they're staging a comeback, keeping the unclean Republicans at bay, and making the world safe for bankruptcy.  But talk of a comeback may be premature as Hotline points out:

...when you look at the national polling metrics and the race-by-race picture in the House, there's little evidence of any Democratic comeback. If anything, Republicans are in as strong a position to win back control of the House as they have been this entire election cycle.

And...

...a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd compiled an invaluable database of all the House race polling conducted this cycle and found 66 Democratic incumbents sitting below that magic 50 percent number.

That number should send shivers down the spines of Democratic strategists. In 2008, when Democrats coasted to victory across the board, 32 House Republican incumbents were under the 50 percent mark in the last poll of the cycle, and 14 of them lost -- a 44 percent mortality rate. When you account for all the vulnerable open seats and the competitive races where polling hasn't yet been released, it's very hard to see how Democrats can hold their majority.

And...

Our House Race Rankings now list 79 races as squarely in play, 72 of them held by Democrats, and other competitive races just missing the cutoff mark. It's hard for either party to keep track of all these late-emerging races, much less build up an opposition dossier in time to run ads against challengers.

Finally...

The fundamentals of this midterm have been troublesome all year for Democrats, and as the election draws closer, the gloomy national numbers are translating into seemingly safe members facing the fights of their political careers. House Democrats are still staring at a Category 5 hurricane that looks likely to sweep away their majority, with the real possibility that some of their most entrenched members could be among the victims.

COMMENT:  I certainly hope this chap is right.  But we should also pay attention to the Senate, where a GOP takeover is much more problematical.  The Senate is where Supreme Court nominations are confirmed or rejected, and where treaties are either ratified or voted down.  Those two critical functions can influence policy for a generation, not a year. 

Most estimates have the GOP increasing its numbers in the Senate, but falling a few votes short of a majority.  I think we're looking at 48 GOP seats in the new Senate, as opposed to 41 today.  We need a push in these last weeks to create the needed miracle. 

October 7, 2010